Baltic Balancing Act: NATO Allies Upgrade Fleets Amid Russian Naval Moves

Since the Baltic became an inland sea of NATO, voices have claimed all danger had vanished, asserting that the Swedes and Finns would effectively contain the Russian fleet. This belief is far from accurate.

With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, nine out of ten countries bordering the Baltic Sea are now part of the North Atlantic Alliance. Yet, Swedes, Finns, and Latvians caution against underestimating the Russian Baltic Fleet, noting its regular exercises and the occasional encounters with it.

The Kremlin has a history of encroaching upon Swedish waters. In October 1981, a Whiskey-class submarine, S-363, famously ran aground near the Torhamnaskär islet in an incident dubbed "Whiskey on the rocks." October 2014 saw a Russian miniature submarine, likely of the Triton-NN type and intended for sabotage and special forces support, leaving a noticeable trail on the seabed after hitting a shoal. Additionally, a Russian submarine collided with the seabed at Gävle's port entrance in 2017. These documented incidents hint at possibly more undisclosed encounters due to their classified nature.

The Russian Baltic Fleet currently depends on the "Dmitrov" from project 877E, a submarine of the same generation as the Polish "Orzeł" but with modernized combat capabilities. The appearance of the Black Sea Fleet's "Novorossiysk" and "Krasnodar" in the Baltic, coupled with ships constructed in St. Petersburg undergoing trials, underscores Russian naval activities.

The necessity to bolster their submarine forces in the Baltic has not gone unnoticed by Russia. Following Sweden and Finland's NATO membership, over 30 submarines now navigate the Baltic Sea zone, complicating the strategic landscape, as Reserve Commander Vasily Dandykin noted in "Izvestia." Plans to enhance the Russian Baltic Fleet with modern diesel-powered submarines from project 0636.3 are underway, starting with the "Petrozavodsk." The intent is to deploy several vessels to bolster defenses against potential aggression.

The introduction of up to six Lada-class submarines, starting with the "Velikiye Luki," signals an escalation in the Baltic Fleet's strategic importance post-Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO. The advancements in Russian naval technology and systems necessitate a continuous evolution of NATO's capabilities, as advised by Commander Erik Ahlqvist of the Swedish submarine flotilla and corroborated by other allies experienced in underwater engagements.

Sweden's response includes upgrading its submarine fleet with new A26-type units and replacing smaller corvettes with larger ships better equipped for the Baltic’s challenging conditions. These enhanced units, complemented by helicopters and submarines, aim to effectively neutralize the Russian submarine threat. Similar modernization efforts are seen in Finland and Germany, with the construction of Pohjanmaa-class corvettes and F126 frigates, respectively.