Asteroid YR4: Scientists simulate impact, assess minimal threat
Scientists are closely monitoring asteroid YR4. The threat of it hitting Earth is minimal, but researchers prefer caution. A simulation has even been created to show the effects of a cosmic catastrophe.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. The object is between 130 and 330 feet long. Currently, the rock is moving away from Earth at a speed of about 8.24 miles per second. However, according to scientists' estimates, there is a chance that YR4 might hit Earth. The collision could happen in one of six cases between 2032 and 2071, when the object will be flying near our planet. Fortunately, the threat in the case of 2032 is only 1.2 percent. Despite this, procedures related to the observation of the asteroid have been initiated.
Will YR4 hit Earth? A simulation has been created; here are the consequences of the catastrophe
Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), stated that while the asteroid has a 99 percent chance of missing Earth, it still warrants attention.
However, knowing what a possible collision would mean for Earth is worth knowing. Álvaro Gracia Montoyi from MetaBallStudios created a simulation of the impact effects of YR4 hitting our planet. It shows that if the asteroid were to hit a city, it would be wiped off the surface of the Earth. However, this is a surreal scenario because typical urban areas still comprise a small portion of the planet. It is estimated that even if a collision happened, the asteroid would hit a belt of the earth stretching from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
However, there are ways to act in case the worst-case scenario unfolds. One such way is deflection, which involves changing the asteroid's flight path using a rocket or probe. A NASA mission named the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022 was successful. At that time, a spacecraft was intentionally crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos. Therefore, we are not completely defenceless against the threat.
