Asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a 1.2% chance of Earth impact in 2032
Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the probability to be 1.2%. Astronomers are intensively monitoring the situation.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in Chile on December 27, 2024, as part of the ATLAS program, which aims to detect asteroids threatening Earth. Its diameter is between 130 and 330 feet. The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) agree that the probability of impact on Earth is 1.2%.
Threat to Earth
The asteroid has been classified as a three on the 11-point Torino scale, requiring astronomers' attention. An object of this size hits Earth on average every few thousand years, causing severe damage in the impact region. ESA emphasizes that initial probability estimates may be overestimated but may change over time.
Observations of the asteroid may be difficult because its orbit will move away from Earth in the coming months. ESA considers it possible that existing observations will not be sufficient to rule out a collision in 2032 entirely. The next opportunity for observation will come in 2028. "An asteroid of this size hits Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a region," ESA noted.
