Assad's fall in Syria: How Ukraine diverted Putin's focus
The regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen in Syria. While the opposition celebrates victory, Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia, and according to the Russian news agency TASS, they have already flown to Moscow. Alexander Baunov, a political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, explains why Putin is so focused on Ukraine that the loss of Syria seems indifferent to him.
On Sunday, December 8, Syrian rebels announced the capture of Damascus, ending Assad's 24-year rule. This event is another phase in the civil war that has been ongoing since 2011, during which Assad was supported by Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah.
The fall of Assad's regime has opened a new phase of the struggle for influence in the region. War-torn Syria has become a battleground for global powers and local factions. With Assad's overthrow, Russia and Iran have lost their influence, initiating a new fight for resources and geopolitical dominance.
The rapid fall of the regime in Syria illustrates Vladimir Putin's extreme, or rather defensive, concentration on Ukraine, which goes beyond rational political norms. He is ready to sacrifice almost anything, including his past successes. While the leaders of the Russian regime constantly strive to present themselves as cold-blooded realists, the realistic politics at the Kremlin gave way to geopolitics long ago, which in turn was replaced by politics in Ukraine, says Alexander Baunov, as quoted by Meduza.
- Putin is so focused on Ukraine that the loss of the sole military-political success outside his borders seems to leave him indifferent. The Ukrainian conflict, local in origin, has displaced everything else and has grown to global proportions, explains Alexander Baunov.
Putin's associates remain silent, realizing that all of this lies within the domain of their boss. As a result, the most important global event in which Russia has been deeply involved for a long time remains without comment. While Iran has presented its interpretation of what happened, the silence from Russia creates an impression, similar to the day of the Prigozhin revolt, of unpreparedness and uncertainty, adds Baunov (Meduza service).
"The stakes in the Ukrainian war are so high that it literally looks like a historic victory or defeat for Russia. A potential victory in the Ukrainian war is presented as a triumph in the global struggle of the world's majority against the elite of the old world: after it will come Syria, Georgia. Now, after Syria's fall, there's nothing left but to win. Thus, the escape from Syria is unlikely to provide direct relief for Ukraine," argues the political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
