Anticipated Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine begins, but strategic success doubtful: ISW
9:40 AM EST, January 31, 2024, updated: 4:36 AM EST, March 7, 2024
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The analysts in the latest report evaluate that "The Russian forces might be able to secure additional tactical victories in the Kupiansk area. However, they may find it challenging to convert these tactical wins into a larger mechanized maneuver necessary for operationally significant advancements".
Progress near Krokhmalne
The American think tank reports that Russian troops have made tactical advancements to the southeast of Kupiansk along the P07 road, which is near Krokhmalne (Kupiansk-Svatove road). The report suggests that Russians are intensifying their attacks towards the west and northwest of Krokhmalne, targeting the Oskol River.
According to the ISW, the 1st Armored Army and the 6th General Army units are operational in the Kupiansk area. These units are capable of launching head-on attacks, but they appear unable to execute a larger scale mechanized maneuver. The think tank attributes this limitation to these units being stationed in this area for over a year.
The attack will lose momentum by spring
The center underscores that their assessments align with the statements of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov. Budanov stated that the Russians haven't achieved substantial victories in the ongoing offensive, and the attack is expected to run its course by the start of spring.
"When the enemy's movements cease, our troops' movement will commence," announced Budanov.
