Analysis suggests nearly half of Putin's votes may be fabricated

Based on data provided by Russian election commissions, it appears that Vladimir Putin garnered at least 31.6 million votes. However, an analysis by "Novaya Gazeta Europe," using the Shpilkin method, suggests that about half of these votes might have been fabricated.

The Shpilkin method is crucial in uncovering the number of votes improperly added to a winner's total through ballot forgery and alterations to final protocols. This technique involves comparing the vote distribution for each candidate against voter turnout at individual polling stations. In a fair election scenario, the vote distribution between the winner and other candidates should be relatively uniform across all locations. Conversely, fraudulent votes disrupt this balance, artificially inflating both turnout and the eventual result.

"We leveraged data from the processing of 97 percent of protocols available from the Central Election Commission (CEC), as collected by the channel Něvybory," explained the "Novaya Gazeta Europe" website.

"Discounting electronic votes, 74.5 million individuals took part in the elections. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, of these, 64.7 million cast their votes for Putin. Our findings suggest that ​​out of these, approximately 31.6 million votes in favor of Putin could have been manufactured, indicating that nearly half of his received votes might be counterfeit," as stated on "Novaya Gazeta Europe."

This instance could mark one of the most significant instances of electoral fraud in the history of Russian presidential elections.

Per data from the Central Election Commission, in 2012, Putin was supported by 41.5 percent of the eligible voting population. Sergei Shpilkin, employing statistical analyses, identified 9 million votes as "suspicious." Without these, Putin's support would shrink to just 33 percent of voters.