Russia gears up for possible Baltic conflict, NATO on alert
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia may be ready for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years. The situation in the area is tense, partly due to numerous underwater incidents. "There must be an acceleration. If it doesn't happen, the risk will increase," says NATO's defense capabilities expert Jakub Palowski in an interview with "Fakt."
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service published a report predicting that Russia could rebuild its military forces within two years if the conflict in Ukraine ends or is frozen. The first scenario suggests that it might take only six months for Russia to attack a NATO country in the absence of U.S. involvement.
Within two years, Putin and his regime are expected to pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries, which could mean a regional war involving several countries at once. In the span of five years, the Kremlin might be ready for a larger conflict in Europe.
Russia a threat to NATO: experts speak up
"Fakt" asked experts about the Russian threat. Jakub Palowski from Defence24.pl emphasizes that Russia may try to break NATO's cohesion. "The two-year perspective is an important factor in taking actions to break NATO's cohesion," he said. He highlights the need for the dynamic development of NATO's defense capabilities.
This is not directly stated, but it follows from the entire content of the report. There must be some kind of acceleration on NATO's side, on the allied side. If it doesn't happen, the risk will increase - Palowski points out.
Commander Max Dura has a different opinion. He believes that rebuilding Russian forces at such a pace is impossible, especially since Russia is still involved in Ukraine.
They need about 7-10 years to regain what they had on February 24, 2022. In my opinion, it's not possible earlier - the expert stated. A war that ends with the permanent occupation of some territory is rather impossible in such a time frame. But that's just my opinion - says Commander Dura.
The "Fakt" interviewee points out that Russia produces a maximum of 300 tanks per year, which is insufficient given the losses suffered in Ukraine. "They produce a maximum of 300 per year, and they lose that many in one month," he emphasizes.
The Danish intelligence report and expert opinions present different perspectives on the potential threat from Russia. They indicate the need to enhance NATO's defense capabilities to counteract potential threats in the Baltic Sea region.
