Russia's mercenary dilemma: Convicts in Africa stir unrest
African countries are concerned that, following the war in Ukraine, Russia may bolster its mercenary forces with criminals, particularly those who were initially deployed on the Ukrainian front. Russian mercenaries have been accused of war crimes in places like Libya and Mali, and there is apprehension that sending convicts to Africa could escalate violence.
It is speculated that Vladimir Putin might send former prisoners to Africa to prevent their return to Russia.
Prof. Amadou Diouf from Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar highlights that Russia faces a dilemma regarding the fate of former prisoners who fought in Ukraine.
"Their return is feared by the residents of the villages and cities they come from," Diouf told the Polish Press Agency, explaining that these fears are due to the many crimes committed by these individuals.
According to the Senegalese political scientist, Putin might find it appealing to send these criminals to Africa, where they would reinforce existing mercenary units of the former Wagner Group and other private formations, which are already largely composed of criminals.
Russian convicts in Africa
A report by Fahad Mirza from the Center for Human Rights Research states that the majority of Wagner Group forces in Ukraine consisted of convicts. During peak operations in 2023, their numbers reached 50,000. Convicts and repeat offenders were also added to mercenary groups stationed in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, Niger, the Central African Republic, and Mozambique.
Mirza warns that Russian mercenary groups in Africa could evolve into terrorist organizations.
Russian mercenaries are accused of war crimes in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Humanitarian organizations and the U.S. State Department accuse them of deliberately killing civilians. The involvement of criminals among the mercenaries fuels concerns about a further escalation of violence.
The BBC reported that Russia has enacted laws allowing prisoners to choose war over court proceedings. After the conflict in Ukraine concludes, Russia might send these individuals to Africa to prevent their return home, causing worry among African communities.
"Months spent waging war haven't rehabilitated anyone. Criminals purportedly rehabilitated by the system have become even worse criminals," Prof. Amadou Diouf noted.
