Russian troop shift likely as Mali ambush decimates Wagner forces

"Russians may withdraw some of their troops from the Kharkiv region," reports the Institute for the Study of War in its latest analysis. The reason is the massacre of Wagner Group members in Mali, where 50 fighters, along with their commander, were eliminated.

"Russian fighters from the Wagner Group in Mali have recently suffered colossal losses, and now the Kremlin will need a large-scale replacement of soldiers in Africa with soldiers from the Russian Federation's African Corps. Part of this corps was recently transferred to the Kharkiv region to support the enemy offensive," notes the Unian agency.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, several Russian war bloggers claim that "the Ministry of Defense is outraged by the loss of fighters." "There is a possibility that the military command will use this to halt the deployment of Wagner personnel in the Sahel region and completely replace them with the African Corps of the Ministry of Defense," it reads.

Bloggers cited an anonymous source in the administration of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, which confirmed such changes. Furthermore, troops will be sent to the entire "Sahel trio" (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) to replace the fighters.

Analysts estimate that the African Corps likely currently cannot adequately replace the Wagner Group, particularly in Mali. "The reason may be that part of the corps was transferred to the Kharkiv region and therefore can be withdrawn from Ukraine," it emphasized.

"Replacing the Wagner personnel on a large scale after losses like those suffered in the recent ambush will likely result in the transfer of some African Corps fighters to Mali, away from the front lines in Ukraine, and the Russian military command is unlikely to consider completely replacing the Wagner personnel in Mali," analysts believe.

The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) confirmed on Monday that it is involved in actions in Africa against former Wagner Group mercenaries. "More to come," said HUR representative Andriy Yusov, referring to the recent Tuareg attack on Wagner personnel in Mali.

According to Yusov, Tuareg rebels fighting against the Malian army and Russian mercenaries received necessary information from the Ukrainian side that allowed them to successfully operate against the Russians. "At this moment, we will certainly not discuss details, but we will continue (these actions)," announced the HUR representative.

On Saturday, Reuters, citing a statement by the CSP-PSD rebel movement, reported that Malian fighters from the Tuareg ethnic group had killed and injured dozens of Malian army soldiers, as well as Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group, during clashes near the Algerian border.

The Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security, and Development (CSP-PSD) rebel movement announced on Saturday that it had seized armored vehicles, trucks, and tankers during clashes in the vicinity of the town of Tinzaouaten near the border. The group also reported damaging a helicopter that subsequently crashed in the town of Kidal, located hundreds of miles away. The clashes were said to have occurred on Thursday and Friday.

Africa is one of the "traditional" areas of activity for the Wagner Group—a Kremlin-linked Russian mercenary formation notorious for its numerous crimes. Since 2022, the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, Wagner personnel have fought in that country. However, after the so-called rebellion initiated in June 2023 by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his subsequent death (he died two months later in a plane crash), this formation was officially disbanded, and most of the mercenaries were supposed to move to Africa.